What's going on with Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
When the Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba at no.20 overall, the wide receiver's fit felt obvious. So why has Seattle been unable to get the ball downfield to JSN? Matty F. Brown investigates:
When the Seahawks picked wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall selection of the 2023 NFL draft, the fit was obvious.
Seattle required a genuine third receiving option to complement their two studs, and would utilize Smith-Njigba in similar fashion to Shane Waldron’s past exposure to Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams offense. Rather than relying upon the unreliable Dee Eskridge, the Seahawks instead added a premium, highly productive, ready-made slot option for Geno Smith to enjoy, and for the 2023 offense to be better regression-proofed than the previous season.
Instead, the start of the Seahawks’ 2023 campaign has been the latest example of the reality of NFL football differing to projections. After looking promising in limited preseason action, Smith-Njigba fractured his wrist and underwent surgery that saw him return to practice less than two weeks before the opener. Now, though Seattle sits at 3-1 in their bye week, questions over JSN’s role in the offense have emerged, with concerns growing week-by-week.
When any prospect starts slower than anticipated, the weaknesses on their pre-draft report card loom larger. Is that 4.5s 40 time and on-tape lack of acceleration through the middle-to-long gears a separation issue? Is JSN the latest highly productive college slot receiver to struggle in his adaptation to the professional game? And, whisper it, is JSN going to be a bust?!
Downfield Targets
After four games, Smith-Njigba has just 12 catches for 62 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns. The advanced stats, courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, show that his production and targets have radically come near the line of scrimmage and short routes:
0.7 yards per route run (100th among receivers with at least 10 targets)
3.1 yards per target (103rd) (Lowest)
2.8 Average Depth Of Target (102nd) (Second Lowest)
-0.3 Average Depth Of Completion (103rd) (Lowest)
This data suggests Smith-Njigba is being utilized solely as a gadget-type player in Seattle’s attack. That’s not the case, JSN is getting downfield routes. Rather, this is offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s way of manufacturing touches for Smith-Njigba despite the ball not finding it’s way to him downfield yet. Indeed, JSN still has the third-most targets and catches on the team:
DK Metcalf 23 targets, 18 catches
Tyler Lockett 28 targets, 17 catches
JSN 20 targets, 12 catches
Noah Fant 11 targets, 10 catches
Colby Parkinson 10 targets, 6 catches
Ken Walker III 10 targets, 8 catches
Zach Charbonnet 7 targets, 4 catches
Will Dissly 5 targets, 5 catches
Notice this downfield seam route from the left slot, which the Panthers basically doubled via their quarters shell. Smith smartly decided to target a different route combination for the coverage concept.
Carolina similarly managed to get two bodies on this Smith-Njigba seam route too. It looked like Seattle was trying to dial up a shot to their receiver.
Pass Protection
Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan have played well-enough at the two tackle spots, following the week 1 injuries to Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, and the Seahawks have handled interior line shuffling relatively smoothly too. Nonetheless, the limits of Seattle’s pass protection have still been on display and JSN’s downfield assignments have suffered.
Fant’s big play versus the Giants saw Drew Lock run from the pocket, with Forsythe giving up a deep rush around the arc. If Lock had felt comfortable enough to stay in there, Smith-Njigba’s deep crossing route out of the slot, with a chair step, was breaking in a nice fashion.
On this play, JSN’s slot route in behind the second level would have been a very interesting option for Smith, if Forsythe hadn’t been beat quickly off the left edge.
Even with the safety driving well on Smith-Njigba’s out route here, if Smith had felt comfortable enough to step into and drive this throw—rather than relying on his upper body torque—this pass would likely have been completed. Instead, JSN had to wait for the football and the attempt was broken up.
Encouragingly for Seattle, starting left tackle Charles Cross returned to practice this week.
Tight Ends and Jake Bobo
The Seahawks’ second string of pass protection will have further encouraged Shane Waldron to lean on his usage of multiple tight end sets, the play caller using them to obfuscate tendencies, face advantageous matchups, and help in pass protection. On the season, Sports Info Solutions has Seattle in 11 personnel for 54% of snaps, 12 personnel 29%, and 13 personnel 9%. From weeks 2 to 4, that 13 personnel number increased to 11%.
Pete Carroll, speaking Friday, told reporters that Waldron has “got a little hanker for, he likes the tight end position, he coached it years past and all of that,” before finishing with “he’s a real innovator with this stuff and that’s one of areas that he likes playing with.” The featuring of tight ends “never really came up,” in Seattle’s interview with Waldron, with Carroll describing it as “a pleasant surprise.”
Smith-Njigba’s appearances on the field have been further eaten into by the emergence of undrafted free agent wide receiver Jake Bobo. While JSN is a smaller, slot/flanker type, Bobo has already shown he can put his 6-foot-4, 207 pound frame to use as a blocker in the run game.
Play calling-wise, when Seattle runs the ball with Smith-Njigba out there, they tend to have the receiver run an attached screen concept or route, or they just run the ball away from him entirely. Conversely, when Bobo is on the field, the Seahawks will often run the ball directly behind Bobo’s block. Seattle will put Bobo in the game for run blocking.
Here are Smith-Njigba’s offensive snap counts:
Week 1, 59%
Week 2, 56%
Week 3, 44%
Week 4, 53%
And Jake Bobo’s playing time on offense:
Week 1, 24%
Week 2, 25%
Week 3, 41%
Week 4, 38%
“He’s doing everything fine,” Carroll said September 25th when asked about Smith-Njigba’s progress. “He’s doing just fine. He hasn’t got the ball a lot yet, but there’s no reason for that other than we’re just mixing it up.” That “mixing it up” includes the tight ends and Bobo.
Lockett and Metcalf
Meanwhile, even the most encouraged of JSN preseason believers would have acknowledged Lockett and Metcalf are significant targets for Smith to look for ahead of the rookie.
This play versus the Giants is telling, with Seattle shifting their formation pre-snap to get a predictable defensive check to attack. Smith decided to take Lockett’s clean release, one-on-one versus off coverage, instead of looking to Smith-Njigba’s out pattern, which may have been completed.
Drew Lock made a similar decision against New York, looking for Lockett’s free release out route as a pressure-beating answer instead of JSN’s open slot route at the top of the screen.
Meanwhile, this Hoss Y Juke style concept saw Smith decide to target the two receiver side of the empty formation (generally more predictable) and look for a rhythm-style, on-schedule throw to start the drive. To the trips side, JSN in the slot had an interesting looking seam versus the cover 3 zone.
JSN The Decoy?
Whereas you might have expected defenses to pay extra attention to Lockett and Metcalf, with Smith-Njigba being one of the beneficiaries, JSN has actually been more of a “decoy” and the opposite has been more true. Instead, the vision of Smith-Njigba preventing teams from allocating extra resources to Lockett or Metcalf may be proving itself.
On this Giants pressure look, New York’s defense dropped out into a cover 1-style man defense that saw JSN doubled over the middle. Metcalf was left one-on-one at the perimeter, and the Seahawks would have picked up the first down if the receiver hadn’t stepped out of bounds prior to his catch.
This narrowly missed shot versus the Panthers was Smith-Njigba being given a bait route as part of the concept for Lockett. On the outside, his hitch pattern was designed to make the deep half safety think that—along with Lockett’s fake to the corner—Seattle was running a “smash” route combination. While Lockett got his safety turned around, the recovery of the backside safety seemed to result in Lockett making the decision to swat the pass.
Naturally, each receiver pattern is valuable even if only one guy catches the football on a given play, and Smith-Njigba’s routes have ended up being the zone opener for a teammate.
“I know the unfortunate thing as far as the production goes right now, the opportunities, different coverage contours maybe for a play that's going his way and it doesn't quite work out that way, and a lot of other guys are getting the ball, as well,” Waldron described on September 29th.
This hank-like variant against the Giants saw JSN’s shallow crosser open the window for Lockett’s deeper curl route to be completed against the cover 1 pass defense, with the robbing middle defender hesitating slightly as JSN crossed underneath.
Meanwhile, against the Panthers, JSN’s over-the-ball route—along with Metcalf being doubled—saw Smith read the two underneath zone defenders and fire to Parkinson in the flat, enjoying another hank-variant.
Smith’s pick targeting Smith-Njigba versus Carolina appeared to be the quarterback misreading the Panthers’ coverage, thinking he was getting a cover 3 buzz rotation from the safety. That would have been JSN running beneath and away the interior zone of the safety into space. Instead, it was a split safety deal, the quarter safety on the frontside playing more down and the middle hook linebacker making a great play to undercut the route for the pick. Smith never saw or anticipated this.
Seattle learned from this style, later using Smith-Njigba on a similar in-breaker to open the outside window in the coverage shell for a completion to Metcalf.
Timing, Chemistry, and Execution
The above interception led to a fascinating sideline moment that we were given Smith mic’d up access to, the quarterback telling his receiver: “Whatever happened is on me; it ain't ever on you.”
The first four games show that Smith-Njigba’s execution and connection with his quarterback required some learning moments.
This play at the Giants saw JSN aligned as the “X” receiver running a quick out against the leverage of the zone bailing corner. Where Smith may have waited longer for a Metcalf or Lockett to do their work, on the timing of the play the quarterback decided to move off Smith-Njigba before his quick out had broken open, instead rifling the football in a crazy tight window to Lockett. This is understanding, chemistry, and trust that will grow between JSN and Smith as the games continue.
The timing aspect to the offense—particularly with the pass protection limitations—cannot be understated. It has felt “off” in certain moments. Take this 3rd and 2 Panthers play, which saw Geno progress from JSN, not open in time on the corner route, and then Lockett’s seam—coming open too late against cover 3—to a checkdown in the flat that was messed up by the same hook defender who left Lockett at just the wrong moment for Seattle’s offense. With first string pass pro confidence, the Seahawks should pick these third downs up.
Finally, Smith-Njigba’s execution—like the rest of the offense—needs to improve. This third down play versus the Giants was a disaster. After Seattle got the man coverage look they were running a beater for, Smith was given little chance post-snap. In terms of the route Smith-Njigba ran, an in-breaking, angle-style/choice route would have made sense here. His lack of urgency towards the end of the play, and drifting outside, feels bizarre.
“We want to execute at a high level on 3rd down,” Waldron told reporters September 29th, presciently.
“Some of those things haven't worked out quite as well, and knowing those are some of those ops, especially for the receivers, where the ball does get spread around once we get rolling there. I think just all 11 playing better, not necessarily being in 12 personnel or being in 13 that's taking away from it, but just maybe executing it at a higher level when we get into some of those known passing situations when we're out there, we'll present better opportunities and more opportunities for him and all the receiving crew as we're moving forward.”
Fifth NFL Game Breakout?
Smith-Njigba would have had high expectations heading into his rookie year, returning to football from his frustrating, hamstring-impacted final season in college. Dealing with his early NFL struggles to be productive after being dominant at every level of ball he has experienced is a new type of challenge for the receiver.
“I think Jaxon is in a great spot,” Smith assessed on September 29th, before Seattle’s trip to the Giants.
“If you look at when Ken [Walker III] took off last year, it was like Week 5 or something like that. You think about our offense and the new guys that we’re incorporating into the offense; it’s going to take some time. This is our third game, fourth game, playing together. We’re still figuring each other out, and it’s going to take some time. I don’t think he needs to overthink it, I don’t think anyone needs to overthink it. He’s a great player, he’s a great player on this offense, he’s going to make a ton of plays for us, and it just hasn’t happened quite yet. That’s nothing to worry about. We still have time to figure those things out and that’s what we’re doing.”
“It’s just a matter of time before he just pops and comes on the scene and has a 100- yard game or two touchdowns or three touchdowns here,” DK Metcalf agreed to reporters on Thursday.
“It’s just a matter of time, like I said man we’re four games into the season. The fifth game is going to be big, we’ll see what he does next week and if next week is not his game, then the next week will be. He’s a great receiver, he’s going to keep his head up and just keep battling.”
The tape shows that Smith-Njigba is due a game where the intermediate targets start coming. There is no reason the receiver cannot still be that answer to offense regression in the second half of the year. Right now, Seattle has JSN in their attack as a relatively untapped option. With the Seahawks urgently needing to improve their third down performance, sitting at second worst in the league converting just 28.9% of their third down opportunities, Smith-Njigba’s true value may arrive sooner. Possibly in week 6.
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