How 2023 Seahawks Correct Offensive Regression
A data-driven look at how the Seahawks offense regressed in the latter part of the 2022 season and how Geno Smith's attack can correct in 2023, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba a big factor:
The eve of 2023 football. The Seahawks’ second year with Geno Smith presents a variety of outcomes, creating a bubbling nervous anticipation. While Smith’s one-year/three-year deal with Seattle was rightly celebrated, we cannot be certain that the 33-year-old’s remarkable success story will continue.
Questions exist and doubt is natural. After all:
We don’t know if Smith is going to play at a similar level to last year, where NFL Next Gen Stats had the passer leading the league in completion percentage and completion percentage over expectation.
We don’t know whether Smith, NFL 2022 Comeback Player of The Year, can return to his “we don’t need to hold him back at all,” week 3 to week 6 heights.
We don’t know if Smith’s last five regular season games are not, in fact, closer to his true ability, where the quarterback finished four of those five games with negative EPA, plummeting Seattle’s passing offense from a spot where they had been seventh-ranked in EPA per play from weeks 7 to 13.
What we can do, however, is project forwards. And the signs for the 2023 Seahawks avoiding similar offensive regression look promising. First, we must explore what exactly happened in that dip, the significant last five games drop-off. With the issues identified, we can then explore Seattle’s 2023 solutions.
Must-read on this topic:
10-to-20 Yards
As Dan Pizzuta noted for Sharp Football Analysis, Smith’s overall accuracy remained on-target before and after Seattle’s week 10 trip to Munich, Germany: “Before the bye, Smith had the third-lowest rate of inaccurate passes according to TruMedia. After the bye, Smith also had the third-lowest rate of inaccurate passes.”
However, Smith from weeks 14 to 18, per Sports Info Solutions, had a 83.1% catchable percentage compared to his 90% figure in the first 13 weeks of the season, a noteworthy 6.9% reduction.
Crucially, where Smith’s accuracy really decreased, over the final five games, was in the 10-to-20-yard bracket, as tweeted by my Seattle Overload co-host Griffin Spinmove.
Smith’s catchable percentage attempting 10-to-20-yard throws from weeks 1 to 13? Sports Info Solutions had it at 82.8%. Then, in that week 14 to 18 period, Smith’s catchable percentage throwing 10-to-20 yard balls dropped to 65.1%. An even more noticeable 17.7% chunk.
Positive play percentage tells a similar story of the intermediate passing range being the true final five decline, where Smith went from 10th to 33rd in the intermediate footwork concepts.
Smith’s passing positive play percentage in pure dropback situations from weeks 14 to 18? Sports Info Solutions:
0/1-Step Shotgun Gun Drop (essentially quick game), 11th in the NFL
5-Step Gun Drops (deeper drops), fifth
3-Step Shotgun Drops (intermediate drops), 33rd
Smith’s passing positive play percentage in pure dropback situations from weeks 1 to 13? Sports Info Solutions:
0/1-Step Shotgun Gun Drop (essentially quick game), seventh in the NFL
5-Step Gun Drops (deeper drops), first
3-Step Shotgun Drops (intermediate drops): 10th
The importance of these short-to-intermediate passing concepts to the Seahawks offense is emphasized by how often 2022 Seattle looked to use them. Let’s look at the volume.
Sports Info Solutions had Seattle using 0/1- and 3-step dropbacks on 65% of their 2022 pass snaps, the 10th-highest NFL total. In the shotgun, this figure climbed to 77% of their passing snaps being 0/1- and 3-step dropbacks, the fifth-most league-wide.
Out of those 0/1- and 3-step shotgun dropbacks, Seattle proved successful, with the ninth-highest positive play percentage on the season. Yet the decline still arrived: while in weeks 1 to 13 that positive play percentage ranked fifth-highest, week 14 to week 18 saw the positive play percentage fall to 21st in the NFL.
Receiver Injuries
The regression over the final five games reflects the importance of receiving weapons, where Seattle dealt with a litany of injuries to their targets as the 2022 year developed.
Dee Eskridge, the projected wide receiver #3 of 2022, had his season cut short after missing week 12 versus the Las Vegas Raiders with a broken hand.
Tyler Lockett missed week 16 at the Kansas City Chiefs with a broken index finger. He was then questionable with the same injury in week 17 and questionable with a shin injury in week 18.
Marquise Goodwin was a reliable receiving option for Geno, earning the third-most targets out of Seattle’s wideouts. Goodwin was particularly effective in that short-to-intermediate area, where 79.8% of his 2022 receiving yards came in the 0-to-20 yard range, 54% in the 10-to-20 yard bracket. Meanwhile, 81.5% of Goodwin’s 27 receptions came via 0-to-20 air yards.
Goodwin was questionable for week 16 in KC with a wrist injury, then doubtful for week 17 at home to the Jets with a shoulder issue before ending the season on the injured reserve list. He caught zero passes over the last five games.
Other intermediate options came from Seattle’s tight ends. This group also got banged up. Will Dissly was placed on injured reserve after week 16 at the Chiefs, missing the final two games of the season. The second TE, Noah Fant, was questionable against the Chiefs with a knee designation listed on the injury report.
Under Pressure
Another clear issue in Seattle’s 2022 offense was highlighted by Pizzuta via TruMedia data: Smith’s play under pressure. The quarterback’s negative EPA more than doubled under pressure following the bye week (-0.21 EPA per play under pressure to -0.47 EPA per play under pressure)
Using the final five game timeframe makes this even more apparent.
Sports Info Solutions shows over this period, Smith’s play under pressure dropped to -0.085 in points per play, 30th in the NFL beneath Mike White. In weeks 1 to 13, Smith had been the ninth-best quarterback under pressure, with 0.102 points earned per play.
The receiver injury situation was part of that.
And to be better under pressure, not being pressured so often would be nice. Weeks 1 through 13 saw Smith under pressure on 34.5% of his drop backs per Sports Info Solutions. 14 to 18’s pressure percentage increased slightly to 35.9%.
Though Seattle’s 2022 offensive line finished eighth in ESPN’s Team Pass Block Win Rate metric with 63% (Kansas City led the league with 75%), there were rookie tackle learning moments for Charles Cross on the left and Abraham Lucas on the right. Big things will be expected of the duo in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks made moves to improve their interior. Center Austin Blythe retired. Veteran right guard Gabe Jackson was released. Seattle signed high priority free agent center Evan Brown, who beat out 2023 fifth-round pick Olu Oluwatimi. They also slotted Phil Haynes in full-time at right guard, after the fourth-year, former fourth-rounder played that spot part-time last season.
The Run Game
2022’s offensive line as a collective was arguably even worse at run-blocking. ESPN graded the Seahawks’ 2022 unit as only having a 71% Run Block Win Rate, which placed 24th in the NFL, albeit the Tennessee Titans at 16th overall also had a number in the 71% range.
Overall, Seattle’s -9.5% rushing DVOA ranked 23rd compared to their passing of 24.1% placing eighth, per the FTN Almanac.
Whatever the data source, the Seahawks must improve their ground game in 2023.
Rushing also proved inefficient due to Kenneth Walker II’s rookie inexperience. Among running backs with a minimum of 30 carries in each situation, Walker placed—and yes, some of this is chicken-or-the-egg, back-or-blocking discussion—per SIS:
32.8% positive play percentage on first down, 53rd in the NFL
24.5% positive play percentage on second down, 30th
The above was also raised by Nate Tice on the Athletic Football show. Tice then mentioned the efficiency of Seahawks second round pick Zach Charbonnet. The UCLA man led all FBS running backs in 2022 first- and second-down positive play percentage. Additionally, Sports Info Solutions charted Charbonnet’s overall positive rushing percentage at 57%, second-best in the class.
Third and Long
FTN’s Almanac had the 2022 Seahawks first down offense as the third-best passing, but just the 24th rushing. That is an unsound formula for consistently driving the ball down the field.
In the week 14 to week 18 period, Smith was often faced with awkward third down situations, tipping the defense that a pass was coming, with the inefficient run game partially responsible. Per SIS, Smith attempted 46 passes on 3rd and 3+, second most in the NFL. On 3rd and 4+, he attempted 42 passes, the joint-most in the NFL. 3rd and 5+ saw Smith attempt 37 passes, tied second. Clear passing downs are not good.
Seattle’s third down conversion percentage on the season came in at 38.3%, 20th in the NFL. However, over their last three games the Seahawks converted just 30.8% of their third downs, the fourth-worst in the league. By contrast: from week 1 to week 13, Seattle picked up a new set of downs on 42.96% of their third down situations, ninth-highest.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
In 2023, no.20 overall draft pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a large part of Seattle’s solution. The wide receiver thrives in the 10-to-20 yard area of the field. While JSN may be dealing with his surgically-repaired wrist, Pete Carroll made it clear that he expects the receiver to play in week 1 versus the Los Angeles Rams.
“Oh man, he's really, really natural,” gushed Carroll back in early June, during OTAs.
“He's really a natural athlete. Gifted in his timing in and out of breaks, and things. His feel. He also has, we saw this in the workout at school, he's got great change of direction in him.”
“He's got just a marvelous ability to, you know, get in and out of his turns. And his hands are just as natural as can be. He's really a bright football player too. It makes sense to him. We've already moved him all around. He's been inside, outside, and all these kinds of stuff. And so, that looks like it's just what we were looking for."
Geno Smith saw similar things to Carroll in his Organized Team Activity experience of Smith-Njigba.
"You know I think it starts with body control,” the quarterback explained in late May on JSN’s route running ability.
“You know obviously you want guys who are very fast, very quick. But if they can't get in and out of cuts, it really doesn't matter. So he's got great body control. He's actually a very physical guy. You know he's not the biggest in stature, or the, you know, widest, but you can see when he runs he has that route strength and guys don't knock him off his course really too often. And so you look for those things in guys, body control, you know, how are they at the top of the route? That 3-cone, shuttle's very important. How are they in and out of cuts, and I think he's really good at all those."
The preseason showed that Seattle was already deep into their offensive plans for JSN complimenting DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Okay, the standard of execution from lower string players does require some squinting and envisioning. But that’s part of why we watch exhibition ‘ball! Empty formations, with no-one in the backfield, were one schematic element worth discussing.
Hoss Juke
Their preseason usage of “Hoss Juke” stood out.
This is a play made famous by the New England Patriots. The HOSS part of the call presumably stands for “Hitches Outside, Slot Seams”. The two outermost receivers run hitches that can convert to outside release fades if they get a certain coverage.
However, the primary focus of these routes is to serve as a checkdown versus soft cover 3, outside the flat defender and beneath the corner, or to suck up the outside corner in more aggressive middle field closed defenses, or just middle field closed man, cover 1.
The hitches then create added room for the seam routes. Against middle field closed zone, these are kept wider, away from the post safety right down the seams. Against middle field closed man, some teams adapt them to be run more like slot fades to maximize the available space, spanning from the numbers to the sideline. And against middle field open zone, the “slot seams” bend inside, where the room is.
The “Juke” route is a special option route, where the receiver “the Z” or the tight end “the Y” lined up at the #3 receiving spot has three choices. They can break outside, inside or sit their route down.
Typically, if the juke route is not matched within 5 yards, it will sit down, presumably in a zone hole. The juke breaks back outside if a defender matches up with it playing inside leverage. And it breaks to the inside if the opposite is true.
Here are some examples of the Patriots running the concept. Up first is Aaron Hernandez running the juke route.
Then there are Super Bowl 54 plays, where New England ran “Hoss Z Juke” three times in a row out of 22 personnel—2 running backs, 2 tight ends, 1 wide receiver—igniting the scoring drive they needed to win the Lombardi trophy.
They hit: Julian Edelman’s juke matched up with a linebacker; Rex Burkhead’s hitch versus an off corner; and then Rob Gronkowski’s seam against another a linebacker to get down to the Rams’ 2-yard-line.
The idea of heavier personnel groupings like 21 or 12 personnel, or in the Patriots’ case 22 personnel, is that it gets matched with base defensive personnel—only four defensive backs on the field. By then emptying the backfield and spreading the formation, the receivers and tight ends play inside and get advantageous match-ups versus linebacker skillsets.
Meanwhile, the running back/s or tight end/s split out wide give a coverage indicator for the quarterback: if a corner is over them, the offense knows they are facing zone. If a safety or linebacker? It’s likely to be man. And their hitch route is mostly an afterthought for the quarterback.
Even if Seattle wants to run empty via three wide receivers and 11 personnel, 1 running back, 1 tight end, they will still spread the field out and allow them to get Geno a choice between multiple isolated slot match-ups.
The five immediately available targets also remove defenders from the core of the offense’s formation, often making blitzers easier to recognize and therefore pass protection responsibility simpler for the quarterback and offensive line. In a similar way. coverage type can become friendlier to diagnose with the defense more stretched.
Seattle’s lower strings were poor in the preseason at running Hoss Juke. Receivers seemed to make incorrect reads. But the vision is clear: imagine this with Geno, Lockett, Metcalf, Smith-Njigba, Fant, and Walker.
Hoss Z Juke? More like Hoss JSN Juke.
It’s not like the Seahawks didn’t utilize empty in 2022; in fact, FTN’s Almanac had Seattle in empty on 10% of their offensive snaps, the sixth-highest usage in the league. SIS’ data speaks to the overall efficiency of the package.
Geno Total Shotgun Empty:
673 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, 8.1 average throw depth, 71.6% completion percentage, 53.8% completion percentage, 8.62 EPA
Geno 0/1-Step Drop Empty:
296 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 7.3 average throw depth, 69.8% completion percentage, 4.72 EPA, 55.8% positive play percentage
Geno 3-Step Drop Empty:
280 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 72.7% completion percentage, 8.5 average throw depth, 1.09 EPA, 51.4% positive play percentage
Take this sweet connection between Geno and Lockett on a three-step-drop empty play with fake screens on the outside, slant-go routes run out of the stacks. Lockett at the #3 spot ran a juke-like route, getting matched up on a hapless inside ‘backer. This was just a fancy, Shane Waldron way of getting a similar effect to Hoss Z Juke.
In 2023, it’s understandable Seattle will want to build on this. What the Seahawks’ 11 personnel grouping can now represent is exciting—or potentially a lighter receiver, 12 personnel grouping with Metcalf taking a breather as Lockett-JSN stay in—try to force base, then get Lockett and JSN in the slot causing short-to-intermediate problems with Dissly and Walker as the outside receivers running the hitches.
According to SIS, Seattle employed no-huddle plays on 16% of their 2022 snaps, the fifth-highest in the league. That led to a positive play percentage of 58%, second-best in the NFL. By having the increased talent to be multiple more often and in additional ways, the Seahawks should also be able to go fast and/or chameleon at an even greater frequency.
Here are some other empty formation plays from the preseason that get a lot more interesting when you picture first string players executing them. Heck, I don’t know how teams are going to be able to cover all of Seattle’s options in these looks; JSN already appeared deadly in the brief empty work he got.
There’s too much space. There’s too much talent.
Hoss Juke-ish Shallow Cross
Empty Stick
Empty Stick Nod
Empty Stick Seam
Empty All Hitches
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Also please do enjoy the following link to some preseason Seahawks materials.