Why The Seahawks Pay QB Geno Smith
The debate on whether the Seahawks should extend QB Geno Smith or not reflects how disappointingly Seattle has ended the 2022 season. Don't be swayed: Geno is the Seahawks' new franchise passer
The increasing peril of the Seahawks’ 2022 season has led to the inevitable question: what comes after death? Seattle’s coming offseason promises an exciting pairing of high and plentiful draft picks—thanks Denver. Distracted minds have turned to easy attractions: in the lust for new additions, the tantalizing cap potential of hitting on a rookie quarterback contract overrides inhibitions of the draft lottery and the unknown year 1.
With Seattle losing 5 of their last 7 games, it feels like the early surprise many felt regarding Geno Smith’s success as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback has turned to a reluctance to pay Smith like a starting NFL quarterback.
This is understandable from a roster-building standpoint. The Seahawks’ near-$50million in 2023 cap space looks like big spending power in the free agency cycle. However, if they are to extend Smith and draft high, they will have burned the majority of these dollars. Like every NFL year, other contracts on Seattle’s roster will be expiring. The roster may still have an old-and-young, is-this-a-rebuild-or-not?, conflicted feel. And is the rest of the Seahawks’ team fixed with one draft cycle and some low-tier buys?
Smith, 32-years-old, would feel aggrieved. In his first year as a starter since 2014, Geno has earned a Pro Bowl selection and should finish with the Comeback Player of The Year-title. The basic statistics place him in the Top 10 of NFL passers: 4069 passing yards (7th), 29 passing touchdowns (T-4th), 70.2% completion percentage (1st), 7.8 yards per attempt (7th).
Smith’s advanced numbers have fallen off as the year has progressed, though. Per Sports Info Solutions, Geno’s 0.159 points earned per pass play ranks 12th among passers with at least 300 pass attempts. Prior to Seattle’s 5 of 7 losing skid, Smith was at 0.224—4th-best in the NFL. From Week 10 onwards, Geno’s 0.089 points earned per pass play places 24th (minimum of 100 attempts).
After the second-half offensive lull versus the New York Jets, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll highlighted consecutive weeks of third down difficulties from the offense, where Seattle went 5 for 15 (33.33%). “We didn’t do well enough on third down,” Carroll assessed post-game. “We have to take a look and see why that happened. It’s really two weeks in a row that we were not the way we need to be on third down.”
In the 23-6 victory, Seattle’s attack managed just four explosive plays (a pass of 16 yards or more, a run of 12 yards or more). The Jets, quarterbacked by Mike White, put up six explosives. Carroll teams have always focused on explosives, it being difficult for attacks to sustain drives without one. And, when explosives are high on defense or low on offense, addressing the issue can solve a lot of other problems encompassed in the explosives metric.
There are three main factors that can explain most of this: tougher catches not being made, pass protection limitations, and trying too hard.
Pass Not-Catching
These types of passes were being caught earlier in 2022.
This 2nd and 6, high redzone shot play to Noah Fant was the right look for Smith and a schemed-up play. Geno had the zone indicator. The condensed split of his tight ends allowed Noah Fant to gain leverage on Sauce Gardner and forced the corner to man-turn with the vertical route.
The defender was allowed plenty of contact throughout the route, pulling with Fant’s attempts to push, and the tight end was unable to secure the ball which hit him in the hands. The pass was well-located from Smith.
The very next play, Seattle called in a similar type of cover 4 beater. On the 3rd and 6, the Seahawks’ mesh wheel concept saw the deep quarter zone Gardner squeeze Tyler Lockett’s vertical release, over-the-ball route. DeeJay Dallas’ fast release out of the backfield, running the wheel, got matched up with linebacker Quincy Williams.
This was the look Seattle was aiming for. Dallas had a lot of room, horizontally and vertically, to accelerate towards. Geno made the decision to throw the ball before his running back had stuck up his hand for the pass. Maybe if Dallas had run his route without this gesture, he would have succeeded on the play instead of getting bodied off-course.
Following Smith’s near-disaster moment—which we’ll get to—the quarterback responded with a gorgeous throw to DK Metcalf. After seeing the backside safety rotate down with the Jets running a cover 1 pressure, Geno knew he had his receiver one-on-one to the perimeter. This was ideal placement for Metcalf, to the wide side of the field too! #14 did so much right against the physical coverage of Gardner, separating late. His hands just couldn’t get tight enough at the catch-point.
Metcalf was given a similar opportunity by Geno earlier in the game. Once more, the placement was where only DK could get the football. But the receiver started looking back for the football earlier in the route, not quite tracking the football right or anticipating Smith’s long placement. Of late, Geno has started putting more air on these for Metcalf to run underneath—as we saw with his brilliant catch at Kansas City. D.J. Reed also got away with some late contact.
This play to Colby Parkinson was an intelligent idea from Smith, given the cover 3 curl-flat defender had his back turned to Geno. The quarterback tried to give his tall target a chance on the lofted corner route throw. Yet Parkinson stopped on his route and tracked the ball poorly, seeing the ball go beyond his outstretched arm and almost be intercepted by Gardner in the deep third zone. Perhaps the pair will establish a better connection, but this is the kind of the play that a Lockett—for instance—makes.
Pass Pro Limiting
Seattle’s pass protection has regressed throughout the season. Big contributions to this have been the ageing Gabe Jackson at right guard, who is unable to play full games hovering around the 50% snap mark most weeks, and the learning moments of the Abraham Lucas-Charles Cross rookie tackle pairing. What this leads to is missed opportunities downfield.
This 2nd and 10 wide stacks shot play to Cade Johnson was wide open. Smith re-set the pass protection pre-snap, correctly identifying which side the Jets were bringing pressure from. Johnson got his man throttling down on the slant-go route, creating the opening for what would have been a long touchdown pass.
Unfortunately, fill-in right guard Phil Haynes stepped on the foot of center Austin Blythe as he tried to pass his stunt off. This tripped Blythe and caused the interior of the pocket to collapse on Geno before he had a chance to find Johnson.
The quarterback expertly evaded the pocket and find the open Tyler Lockett for 3rd and manageable. Smith had already alerted Lockett pre-snap to the fact he was hot if the Jets had rushed from the other side, so the passer had in mind Lockett as an outlet.
This 1st and 10 shot play to Metcalf was probably there for the Seahawks. The Jets’ cover 4 defense saw the safety play to the first post route of Seattle’s double posts concept. Meanwhile, Metcalf running the outside post had Gardner beat. A shot from Smith over the top would have been a touchdown.
The ball never came out because Stone Forysthe—the replacement at right tackle for the injured Lucas—was bull-rushed back in the pocket while left tackle Cross was rushed deep around the edge. As Geno looked to gear up in his throw, he was limited in ability to step up in the pocket because of the shrinking frontside and then his blindside collapsed deep. Maybe the passer could have stepped up once, but realistically the timing of the throw would then have been off. The Seahawks had the right look downfield for a big score, the protection just wasn’t right.
Negative Plays
One negative in Smith’s game is that he does sometimes try to do too much with what is there. This is exacerbated when the rest of attack struggles. This 2nd and 7 almost-pick nearly handed the Jets a lifeline, down by just two scores.
Robert Saleh called in the perfect play to kill the Seahawks’ bootleg design, with a blitzing defender from deep ending up unblocked in Geno’s face. The timing of this was perfect: to Smith it looked like the blitzer was covering Parkinson’s slide route of the backfield as he looked to throwback to Fant’s corner. While Fant’s corner route would have been open against the fire zone pass coverage, the blitzer ignored Parkinson and continued to the quarterback, meaning Smith was unable to set the right platform for throwing.
Smith’s ability to make the blitzer miss was impressive. The scary moment was the quarterback throwing blind to Parkinson in the flat. Instead of the pass landing near his tight end, it only just bounced short of the linebacker who had got out there in coverage. Okay, Smith avoided the negative play, but even in his mind this must have been too close for comfort.
The 2nd and 9 fumble was a freaky play, but there have been a few of these with Smith as the quarterback this season. Lockett’s bubble route was there on the RPO for Seattle, the third receiver having the leverage advantage against the third-closest defender to the play. The Seahawks should have been enjoying a 3rd and manageable at the least.
Instead, Smith appeared to try and pull the football back after Kenneth Walker III knocked into the football as Smith began his throwing motion. This is a play more on the rookie back needing to be more aware.
The Failed Third Downs
A breakdown of Seattle’s failed third down attempts, ten in total, is a similar picture of team-wide stalling:
6:44 1st QTR. Drive 2. 1st Half: Geno Smith 3rd and 6 pass incomplete into a tight window to DK Metcalf, Sauce Gardner had the pass breakup. Seattle got into a 3rd and goal situation after Walker ran for a loss of 2 on 2nd down.
6.52 2nd QTR. Drive 4. 1st Half: Smith 3rd and 9 sacked with nothing open on the concept, tried to create backwards. He was sacked on 1st and 10 too with nothing open via play-action, then a 3-yard run on 2nd and 12.
1.02 2nd QTR. Drive 5. 1st Half: Smith 3rd and 19 Incomplete to Cade Johnson. Was seen talking to Johnson afterwards, clearly trying to coach the practice squad call-up on how to run the route. Incompletion to Johnson on 2nd and 19 came from Gardner pass breakup with Johnson not working back to the ball. Sacked on 1st and 10 looking for the shot play to DK with not enough pocket room.
9.00 3rd QTR. Drive 1. 2nd Half: 3rd and 1 QB sneak went for 0 yards, they converted the 4th and 1 via another sneak.
6.11 3rd QTR. Drive 1. 2nd Half. 3rd and 7 Narrowly incomplete to DK Metcalf on edge of endzone. On 2nd down DK lost yardage on his catch. The 1st down was an RPO dropped by an open Colby Parkinson, Smith threw it slightly behind him to try avoid coverage, would have been a first down.
4.39 3rd QTR. Drive 2. 2nd Half: Seattle and Kenneth Walker III were denied on a 3rd and 1 run after they failed to convert a 2nd and 1 run.
13.09 4th QTR. Drive 3. 2nd Half: Geno threw the correct read on a 3rd and 6 wheel route to DeeJay Dallasm but Dallas lost his route. The 2nd and 6 before saw Noah Fant hit on the hands via a similar route concept, but he couldn’t complete the catch.
9.45 4th QTR. Drive 4: 2nd Half. 3rd and 7 after almost pick. Metcalf dropped the 3rd and 7 go ball versus cover 1, with perfect placement from Smith.
6.25 4th QTR. Drive 5: 2nd Half: 3rd and 20 was damage limitation from Seattle. It came after Smith’s freaky 2nd down RPO fumble.
2.22 4th QTR. Drive 6: 2nd Half: Seattle called a 3rd and 9 toss play that went for just 3 yards, they were in clock-draining mode. The 4th and 6 afterwards was a snag concept that covered up by good push defensive rules, so Smith checked it down
Pay Geno
Is Smith sustainable? Have NFL defenses caught up to the quarterback? Can you really pay a guy after one year of production that has dwindled? The context is vital. The passer has been let down by his supporting cast on offense and—a whole different article—the coaching difficulties Seattle has experienced on the defensive side of the ball.
Most important: the tape shows Smith’s quality process at quarterback remains intact—you know, the signs that were visible in the preseason and led to me writing “Geno Smith is ready to ball out for the Seahawks.” The issues mainly fall on the shoulders of others.
Smith is not without fault, yet ultimately he has earned what the market dictates. When you've found the quarterback, as Seattle has with Geno, you pay him. The Seahawks have been without functioning elements for multiples games. Lesser quarterbacks would have crumbled. But Smith, throughout the season, has been unwavering in his approach. And, by all accounts, he has maintained the support of the locker-room that he has enjoyed since Day 1.
I will be staggered if John Schneider and Carroll don’t reward Geno. And, the way NFL front offices work, I’m sure there will be protections for both sides: Seattle guarding against one year of NFL production and a 32-year-old arm, albeit a lightly used one.