Geno Smith is Future at Quarterback for Seahawks and Mike Macdonald
Regardless of Seattle's regime change, the team's contract option, or 2023's basic number regression, Geno Smith should still be the Seahawks franchise quarterback. The advanced data shows why:
The departure of Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, the ensuing search for a coaching staff, and the hiring of Mike Macdonald brings with it fresh questions over the future of starting quarterback Geno Smith.
Smith, 33 turning 34 this October, failed to hit any of the 2023 incentives on his three-year contract, essentially costing himself $15million. Having completed his second season as Seattle’s starter, Geno will now be paid an average of $25million a year for the remaining two seasons on his deal, none of which is currently guaranteed.
Meanwhile, Smith’s cap number is set to rise (as Tim Crean of Heavy Sports identified). Though the Seahawks paid Smith $27.5million for the 2023 year, his cap hit was a team-friendlier $10.1million. According to Spotrac, this was the 127th-highest cap number in the league and came in 14th among quarterbacks.
For 2024, Geno’s cap number leaps to $31.2million. While this is just the 12th-highest quarterback figure, reflective of the league’s valuation of the position, Smith’s cap number projects as the 20th-highest overall in the NFL, a significant 107-place jump.
The ramifications of these higher cap hits, along with the “out” Seattle can enact, encourages a decision, be it a contract restructure/extension or a trade/release.
As Crean highlighted, a restructure could save Seattle around $10.6million against their 2024 cap. Alternatively, a pre-June 1st trade of Geno would see the Seahawks incur a $17.4million dead cap hit but save $13.8million, while also clearing his 2025 final year.
Such a move must be executed before the fifth day of the 2024 waiver period: On February 16th, Geno’s 2024 year salary becomes guaranteed.
In his introductory press conference, new head coach Mike Macdonald was asked about his quarterback room.
“We've played against Geno, he's a really good player,” Macdonald assessed, referencing Baltimore’s Week 9 win in which his defense allowed just 3 points.
“Pretty sure he's at the Pro Bowl right now. But we're going to build around the quarterback. You've got to. Just like we say on defense, we build the system around the players on defense, we're going to build it around the players on offense, and the most important player is the QB. We'll see how the whole situation shakes out over time.”
How “the whole situation shakes out” may not fall on Macdonald: Following the upheaval in Seattle, the man now responsible for a Smith decision is Seahawks general manager John Schneider—at least as is newly outlined in his own contract language.
And Geno’s basic raw numbers read worse from 2022 to 2023, suggesting a decline in play.
Additionally, from a team ownership perspective Smith does not shift jersey sales in a way that “star” or hyped signal callers have. Unlike these players, Geno has never featured in the “Top 50 NFL Players Sales List”, a document released by the NFL Players Association that measures all officially licensed product sold of that player.
Take the merch-shifting of Russell Wilson, a man present on the list even in down moments—like towards the end of his Seattle tenure or following a bad first year in Denver:
From March 21st to November 30th 2021, Wilson placed 19th
From March 1st to May 31st 2023, Wilson placed 31st
Observe 2021 15th-overall pick Mac Jones’ performance as New England Patriots QB:
From March 1st 2022 to February 28th 2023, Jones placed 19th
From March 1st to May 31st 2023, Jones placed 36th
So it’s obvious from a financial and football standpoint: the new Schneider-Macdonald regime should move on from Geno Smith. Heartfelt comeback story or not, Geno doesn’t look like the answer and certainly isn’t a franchise quarterback, right?
Wrong.
The case for Smith requires deeper football analysis and should go way beyond basic numbers or profit margins.
(When it comes to money, the Seahawks have sold out every single home game since 2003, with a season ticket wait list with a current team-estimated wait time of three-to-four years, even if their merchandise sales placed 17th in 2023 and all their fan spending lowest in the NFC West, via a Finance Buzz survey of over 1100 NFL fans.)
Ultimately, winning more football games is a reliable driver of team income and Smith should be at the forefront of Seattle’s future: Geno was still playing well in tricky 2023 Seahawks surroundings.
Advanced Metrics
Media tape-watchers tend to agree that Smith is a quarterback inside the NFL’s Top 10. The 33rd Team’s Derik Klassen ranked Smith as his 10th NFL Quarterback in his last NFL QB ranking of the season; The Ringer NFL’s Steven Ruiz placed Smith 7th in his final grades.
RBSDM.com figures have Smith getting there too, especially when adjusting the win percentage chance to account for garbage time (where there is less on the line and the resulting game state can make moving the ball easier).
Interestingly, Sports Info Solutions’ Total Points metric1 suggests Geno had a better 2023 season than 2022—challenging the basic numbers regression—with Smith’s Total Points Per 1000 snaps (accounting for his missed game time) also placing higher in the overall NFL rankings.
In Schneider’s January 16th press conference, where the Seahawks general manager said so much that he ended up saying little, Schneider was asked for his thoughts on Geno’s 2023 campaign. The GM kept it non-committal.
“I think Geno had a good season,” Schneider answered.
“It was a little bit opposite of last year. He started out really strong last year and things dipped a little bit in the second half. This year, he started out not quite as strong as last year and then finished in a real strong manner.”
The advanced data tends to match that assessment, with Week 10 onwards (seven of Smith’s 15 2023 games) seeing rises in all but one RBSDM.com category.
A similar Week 10 to Week 18 rise exists in SIS’ Total Points Earned Per Pass Play. On the season, Smith was the 14th QB with at least 200 passing attempts, his 0.168 TPEPPP just ahead of 15th-placed Joe Burrow (0.153) and behind 14th-placed Matthew Stafford (0.186), 13th-Jared Goff (0.181) and 12th-Jordan Love (0.180).
The second half improvement? In that seven-game period, SIS’ Total Points Earned Per Pass Play had Smith finish the season as the 7th quarterback with at least 100 passing attempts, Geno’s 0.197 TPEPPP behind Brock Purdy (0.240), Love (0.235), Dak Prescott (0.229), Derek Carr (0.228), Josh Allen (0.209), and Stafford (0.207).
I get it though. Some of the advanced metrics are still on the wrong side of the top 10. And can faith really be placed in Smith’s half-seasons? This is where we have to be honest about Geno’s surroundings and consider what he was still able to achieve.
Pass Protection/Offensive Line
SIS charts Smith as the sixth-most pressured QB in the league among quarterbacks with 200 pass attempts, with 40.2% of his drop backs pressured. For a pocket passer like Geno, this is a ridiculous number, with the QBs ahead of him more stylistically prone to invite pressure (Justin FIelds 44.7%, Russell WIlson 43.1%, Zach Wilson 42.0%) or playing behind an even bigger mess in Tennessee (Will Levis 44.1%, Ryan Tannehill 41.8%).
Meanwhile, Smith’s average time to throw on the season was 2.84 seconds per NFL Next Gen Stats, slightly slower than the league-average 2.75s (among 45 eligible quarterbacks with a minimum of 135 pass attempts) but certainly not a glaring explanation for his high pressured rate. For comparison: Purdy was 2.88s and Stafford 2.68s.
Seattle’s pass protection regression was an obvious issue in 2023. Combining Pro Football Focus’ pass protection grade, SIS’ blown block percentage, and ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric, as The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin did, ranks the Seahawks’ offensive line as the 29th unit in the league:
By the same Baldwin measure, Seattle’s o-line came 21st in 2022:
Injuries were a factor for the Seahawks’ OL throughout 2023: In total, Seattle used nine different starting combinations up front.
Second-year tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas left Week 1 versus the Rams injured.
The right-sided Lucas only played in five other 2023 games, leaving the first half of Week 17 at home to the Steelers with a recurrence of his knee pain.
On the left, Cross made it back from his toe injury for Week 6 at the Bengals. Though the 2022 9th overall pick was able to play the rest of the season, he didn’t really improve on his rookie year, with his issues handling speed-to-power rushers remaining prominent.
Phil Haynes, the projected starter at right guard, landed on injured reserve with a toe injury following Week 12 versus the 49ers and did not return.
Fourth-round rookie Anthony Bradford was called on at RG, and struggled, while 40-year-old Jason Peters—who will enter the Hall of Fame as a left tackle—was asked to play on the right perimeter.
Despite the pressure Smith was under in the pocket, he was excellent at not letting this heat turn into sacks. This is something quarterbacks can somewhat control with their own play.
Indeed, with that sixth-highest overall pressure percentage, Geno:
Was sacked just 31 times, the joint-14th most in the NFL
Had only 14% of the plays he was pressured on turn into sacks, the fourth-best performance in the league, per PFF charting
Had a similar 14.2% pressure-to-sack rate per SIS, with a 14.2% also fourth-best among passers with at least 70 drop backs under pressure
Threw just 2 of his 9 interceptions on plays where he was pressured, per SIS
(Ask yourself, though, what it costs an offense for the quarterback to regularly avoid pressures turning into sacks—increased checkdowns, throwaways, etc.?)
Not only did Geno mitigate plays where he was pressured, he actually performed well in these scenarios. For 2023, Smith was the 7th-best passer in SIS’ Total Points Earned Per Pass Play when pressured, including leading all NFL quarterbacks on first and second down.
However, there will always be a diminishing returns, sustainability issue with pressure performance for quarterbacks. This is shown by Smith’s numbers when pressured dipping slightly in the last seven games of his season compared to his first eight, including Geno’s astonishing first and second down TPEPPP.
From Week 10 to Week 18, even with that slight decline on pressured first and second downs, Smith was able to stay good (8th-best).
Crucially, in that same Week 10 onwards timeframe, the Seahawks’ pass protection unit played better. The result was Geno being pressured less and sacked less. It’s therefore noteworthy that this coincided with Smith’s better production.
(Note Geno’s 2.87s Time To Throw over the first nine weeks of the season was slower than his final 2.84s figure, but NextGenStats charted the NFL average at 2.80s from Week 1 through Week 9, again Smith holding the ball too long not an obvious reason)
In the specific first and second down area, Seattle’s pressure percentage and sack percentage allowed also improved.
Most important: Geno was able to capitalize on being under pressure less often. The Seahawks QB made a big second half of the season leap on all non-pressured downs—including a third down standout 0.406 Total Points Earned Per Pass Play (7th), up from -0.082 (38th).
Like the rest of Seattle’s offense, their third down numbers benefitted. In the first nine weeks of the season, Geno dropped back 86 times on third down (tied 23rd) and his 32.6% success rate came in a terrible 35th in the NFL, per RBSDM.com.
The Week 10 to Week 18 span saw Smith drop back 81 times (tied 16th-most) and improve to a 45.7% success rate that was 13th-best in the NFL—a significant jump.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ third down conversion percentage in the last three games of the season climbed to 47.06%, the fifth-best performance in the league.
However, the critical factor to the second half of the season was Smith still being under pressure on third down. The pressure percentage actually worsened in Geno’s last seven games (51.3%) from the first eight (50.6%).
Unsurprisingly, this third down pressure proved to be the remaining issue: Geno’s performance when pressured on third down barely rose in that second half split (0.015 TPEPPP 15th up from -0.031 19th).
Just imagine what Seattle’s attack could have achieved with better pass protection on third down too.
Instead, on the season, Geno finished as the 31st-ranked quarterback on third down with 0.149 TPEPPP, per SIS.
There are some partially unanswered questions from the above:
How did Smith’s first eight games of the season (Week 1 to Week 9) see horrible performances on plays when not pressured, 0.080 TPEPPP on all downs (26th) and -0.082 TPEPPP on non-pressured third downs (38th)?
What else went into the second-half of season improvement in quarterback play?
Asides from Geno simply playing better in the second half of 2023 (remember a shaky Week 6 Bengals game for instance?) these queries are ones for the entire offense, where Geno’s surroundings require further examination.
The offensive line, particularly without their starting tackles in the first half of the season, required some help via scheme, seeing protection and route concept choices made that limited downfield openings.
There should also be something to the idea that high pressure rates impact quarterbacks even on plays where they are not pressured in the pocket, encouraging the idea that the ball needs to be out faster and lessening a QB’s trust within said pocket.
Similarly, pressure lessens a play caller’s faith in certain passing plays that may prove more effective at beating coverages but take longer to develop, therefore requiring reliable protection.
Pass Catchers
The list of the Seahawks’ pass catching targets reads like a QB wish list: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jake Bobo, Noah Fant, Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson.
Yet these dreams often failed to materialize, especially during the first half of 2023 where they were plagued with issues.
Receiver mix-ups were prominent in the Seahawks’ offense, with wideouts often not on the same page as their quarterback through a combination of bad positional communication, youthful inexperience, and missed practice time.
Route-running details and combinations looked sloppy.
On top of that, an audibly frustrated Pete Carroll identified poor deployment for the Seahawks’ pass catcher skillsets the day after Seattle’s Week 12 49ers defeat.
“We’re looking really hard,” Carroll told reporters.
“We have to maximize our people and have to make sure that we’re putting them in the best positions for them to contribute so that we can make our momentum felt early in the game.”
It did feel like offensive coordinator Shane Waldron found the incorporation of first-round rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the 11 personnel opportunities that presented, a tricky balancing act with the talented, multiple tight end options on Seattle’s 2023 roster.
Rushing Attack
As for a run game the Seahawks offense could lean on, Seattle’s overall rushing attack was average-to-good efficiency-wise: 14th in EPA per rush play, 15th in rushing success rate per RBSDM.com, the numbers climbing with a win percentage of 20% or more to 10th in EPA per rush play, 13th in success rate.
However, Seattle’s run game was hampered by inconsistency and execution lulls. SIS’ “Stuff %”, measuring carries which resulted in zero or fewer yards, rated Seattle with a 21.0% stuff percentage on the season (10th-highest in the NFL) and 23.9% stuff percentage over the first nine weeks (8th-highest).
Interestingly, from the Week 10 to Week 18 area in which Smith improved, Seattle’s run game declined: -0.109 (19th) down from -0.064 (10th) over the first nine weeks of the season.
Meanwhile, excluding quarterback scrambles, SIS charted Seattle with the 5th-fewest rushing attempts (20.5 a game) and 9th-fewest rushing yards (83.8 per game).
Defensive Abomination
A big explanation for the low rushing volume was the lack of Seattle offensive opportunities.
While the Seahawks offense finished 2023 12th in points per drive, they tied only 28th in their total number of drives.
Seattle’s offensive issues converting on 3rd down obviously impacted its ability to sustain, and start, drives. The Seahawks were 23rd in third down conversion percentage, picking up a new set of downs only 36.23% of the time (this includes two Drew Lock games).
Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ attack had a three-and-out rate (drives which achieved zero first downs) which was worse than the league average of 23.6%. They went three-and-out 25.1% of the time, 19th in the NFL. This was a decline from 2022, where their three-and-out-rate was 21.9%, 12th-best in the league while bettering the 24.6% average.
Yet Seattle’s defense was a far grosser issue. The Seahawks’ D finished 29th in points allowed per drive and allowed a 47.0% success rate on defense, 29th in the league per RBSDM.com. Their opposition three-and-out rate was 19.7%, 28th in the NFL and below the 24.3% average.
Overall, Seattle placed 32nd in time of possession and opponent time of possession.
2024 Geno
You’ll note that in 2023, concerns over “turnover-worthy throws” resulting in more Geno interceptions proved unfounded, with Smith throwing the same amount of picks a game as he did in 2022.
Likewise, Smith’s 1.8% interception percentage ranked 12th-best in the NFL (CJ Stroud led the league with 1.0%), with the average of ProFootballReference’s 32-eligible quarterbacks being 2.1%.
Geno’s redzone completion percentage of 42.6%, worst in the NFL per SIS, is initially a concerning 2023 result for the QB. This, though, feels more influenced by the aforementioned environmental factors as opposed to Smith—a man with consecutive seasons of a high completion percentage overall—flat out missing targets.
So where does Geno need to improve moving forward? Besides putting together a consistent season, which would have been tough given the surrounding coaching and execution issues, Smith’s deep ball is one area for the passer to focus on.
It’s not like Geno was a checkdown obsessive: Next Gen Stats charted Smith as averaging 7.7 intended air yards on throws, above Russell Wilson (7.5) but below Purdy (8.3) and Stafford (7.8). Most relevant, Geno’s 7.7 intended air yards was a point below the NFL average 7.8 (out of 45 eligible quarterbacks with 135 pass attempts).
On the deep balls though: Smith’s completion percentage on 20+ yard passes was 45.1%, only 10th among QBs with at least 30 attempts per SIS. (Most was Purdy 60.5%).
Some of this was Geno’s receivers not helping the quarterback, with Smith throwing 80.4% of his 20+ yard attempts in a “catchable” way, the best in the entire league.
However, SIS charted only 52.2% of these throws as “on-target”, coming in 11th among QBs. This suggests Geno could have been more accurate on these balls. (Purdy led the league with 68.80% but only 38 attempts to Smith’s 51, while Prescott was next highest with 63.80% on target percentage off 59 attempts)
With all of the context factored in, it becomes clear Smith is a quarterback Schneider should keep building around and who Macdonald can win with. Only quarterback extremists—those who say you should move on from passers outside the top 5—would argue that Smith’s full profile isn’t worth keeping around. Furthermore, in better circumstances and with further Geno catering, there’s enough evidence to forecast that Smith can reach that loftier status.
Therefore: a $31.2million cap hit for 2024 feels reasonable. Perhaps, then, the Seahawks will simply let Smith play out 2024: the team has other ways of creating more cap room this year, like restructuring DK Metcalf’s contract or releasing Jamal Adams.
Thanks to my former editor at FieldGulls Alistair Corp for editing this article.
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