Geno Smith is playing at an MVP level (Seriously)
(With my Underdog Fantasy YouTube video)
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith was the obvious NFC Offensive Player of the Week after his dominant performance versus the Detroit Lions, where he led Seattle’s offense to 48 points—a botched kick away from 51—and contributed 320 passing yards, a 76.7% completion rate, and 3 total touchdowns.
It’s nice when the data matches the tape. And in the case of Smith, the advanced metrics agree with the All 22: the 10th-year passer is playing at an MVP level.
Over the first four games of this season, Smith became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete over 75% of their passes. His 77.3% completion rate over this opening quarter of 2022 is the best in NFL history for any quarterback in that period.
He ranks 1st in the NFL in Expected Points Added combined with Completion Percentage Over Expectation.
He is 2nd in the NFL in Sports Info Solutions’ Passing Total Points
He places 2nd in Sports Info Solutions’ true drop back - no play-action, screen or RPO - Points Earned Per Pass Play
The Seahawks offense comes in at 4th in overall EPA Per Play
Seattle’s attack is currently 2nd in overall success rate
Meanwhile, Smith’s passing command, potency and variety has allowed the Seahawks to have the 5th-highest early down pass frequency (over 60%) in the league. They clearly have confidence attacking through the air.
Geno’s recent game versus the Lions comes with the caveat of Detroit being talent-deficient on defense. Yet, like the data, the process on display has been consistently visible throughout this year. In fact, the 31-year-old—who turns 32 this week—has shown quality quarterbacking since his 2021 mini audition.
This is turning into one of the best redemption stories in NFL history. And—like with the honors Smith received this week—there is now national recognition of what we are seeing.
That extends to my work at Underdog Fantasy, where I broke down some of Geno’s best plays at the Lions. Notice that Detroit wasn’t executing bad, and they were trying to throw a ton of nasty, tight coverage, aggressive concepts at Smith. It’s just that Geno, coach-on-the-field approach intact, had all of the answers. It’s time to start talking about Smith as an MVP candidate.